SNP's Split from Green Allies: A Strategic Misstep by Humza Yousaf, Dealing a Blow to Independence

In a stunning turn of events, Humza Yousaf's recent decision has not only deepened the fault lines within the SNP but also inadvertently boosted Scottish Labour's fortunes. The once-promising Bute House Agreement, orchestrated by Nicola Sturgeon back in August 2021, was initially hailed as a stroke of political genius. It positioned the SNP as champions of environmentalism, bolstering their progressive image and solidifying a united pro-independence front in Holyrood, ostensibly paving the way for a second referendum.

However, Humza Yousaf's abrupt termination of the agreement and subsequent dismissal of the Green co-leaders as shadow ministers has thrown the party into disarray. Now facing a looming vote of no confidence, Yousaf's purported display of strength has only served to underscore his vulnerabilities.

Since the agreement's inception, the SNP has found itself embroiled in an increasingly divisive culture war, exacerbated by contentious issues such as the gender recognition reform bill and the Hate Crime and Public Order (Scotland) Act. This internal strife has diverted attention from pressing matters like education, healthcare, and poverty alleviation, once core to the party's agenda.

The emergence of Alex Salmond's Alba party, initially anticipated as a channel for dissent within the SNP, has instead rallied disenchanted social conservatives against the party leadership. Ash Regan, Alba's sole MSP and former SNP leadership contender, now holds a pivotal position as Yousaf confronts the impending no-confidence vote. Yousaf's dismissal of Regan's defection as inconsequential has come back to haunt him, as her support may ultimately determine his fate.

With the balance of power teetering precariously, Yousaf finds himself at the mercy of Regan's demands, which include a commitment to uphold women's and children's rights and continued progress towards independence. The once-unshakeable facade of SNP unity now stands on shaky ground, with Yousaf's leadership hanging in the balance.

Humza Yousaf's tenure as a leader has been marred by a series of misfortunes, beginning with the daunting circumstances inherited and exacerbated by subsequent missteps. While Yousaf cannot be held accountable for the increasing assertiveness of the SNP's coalition partners on identity issues or Kate Forbes' strategic use of the Bute House agreement against him, his leadership inconsistencies lie squarely at his feet.

Initially portraying himself as a continuity candidate, Yousaf's narrative shifted amidst the party's entanglement in a fraud investigation, adopting the persona of a reformer. His failure to consult adequately on significant policy decisions, such as the council tax freeze and the handling of the Hate Crime Act, provided fodder for critics to depict these measures as assaults on free speech.

This week, Yousaf faced a lose-lose situation stemming from SNP's overconfidence. The party's overly ambitious climate targets inevitably led to a backtrack, infuriating the Greens, who condemned the SNP's perceived betrayal. Yousaf's preemptive action to sever ties with the Greens before an extraordinary general meeting was driven by the necessity to avoid prolonged speculation and accusations of being led by the tail.

Furthermore, Yousaf witnesses his party hemorrhaging support, evident in the recent abstentions by six SNP MSPs and predictions of significant MP losses in upcoming elections. While shedding the Greens might attract voters put off by the SNP's perceived "wokeness," it does little to dispel the perception of the party consistently overpromising and underdelivering during its 17-year reign. Moreover, lingering shadows from the embezzlement charges against Nicola Sturgeon's husband and former SNP chief executive, Peter Murrell, continue to tarnish the party's image.

In conclusion, the tumultuous aftermath of Humza Yousaf's decision to sever the Bute House agreement underscores the fragility of the SNP's leadership and the precarious state of Scottish politics. As Yousaf navigates the fallout of his actions and contemplates his political future, the specter of a rightward shift looms over the party, with implications that extend be